Methodology
How we calculate FDV/Market Cap
We start with prediction market data and convert it into a probability curve over FDV outcomes.
1. Start with prediction market FDV thresholds
Each market provides probabilities for FDV thresholds ("FDV above $X"). We transform these into a cumulative distribution function (CDF) over FDV outcomes.
2. Estimate expected FDV (E[FDV])
We estimate expected FDV by integrating across adjacent strike levels using midpoint probability mass. If the curve ends before 100% probability, we add a tail bin beyond the last strike.
3. Map expected FDV into the dashboard
The FDV/Market Cap panel displays each token's latest expected FDV (E[FDV]) from the most recent snapshot.
Notes
- We prefer the explicitly computed implied E[FDV] from the collector when available.
- If implied E[FDV] is missing, we fall back to computing it from the latest curve snapshot.
- FDV/Market Cap is shown as a relative map view rather than a literal on-chain market cap ratio.